IPCR @25: Climate-Change, Armed Conflicts and Internal Displacements in the Sahel Region

The Sahel region, a vast semi-arid belt that stretches from Senegal in the west to Sudan in the east, is increasingly recognized as a hotspot of converging crises. Characterized by chronic poverty, weak governance structures, historical marginalization, and rising insecurity, the region now faces an escalating challenge: the intensifying impacts of climate change. 

Rising temperatures, 1.5 times faster than the global average, combined with erratic rainfall patterns, prolonged droughts, desertification, and shrinking water bodies are pushing the region into a cycle of environmental degradation, resource scarcity, and heightened competition for survival.

For Nigeria, particularly its northern states within the Sahelian zone, this confluence of environmental and human stressors poses a significant threat to national security and development. As water sources dry up and arable land becomes less productive, tensions between farming and herding communities have escalated, often with deadly consequences. 

The increasing frequency of clashes over land and grazing routes has become one of the country’s most persistent and complex conflict dynamics. In addition, the impacts of climate change are contributing to the weakening of livelihoods, food insecurity, and the loss of traditional coping mechanisms, driving people from their homes and exacerbating internal displacement, especially among already vulnerable populations.

As we witness the evolution of these crises, a growing consensus is emerging that traditional peacebuilding frameworks are insufficient in the face of climate-related security risks. We must reimagine peacebuilding and development by integrating climate science, early warning systems, resilience strategies, and inclusive dialogue into national and regional security planning. Solutions must be grounded in local realities and driven by communities, particularly women and youth, who are on the frontlines of both climate impacts and peacebuilding efforts.

The Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR) and Friedrich Ebert Stiftung organized a roundtable discussion aimed at deepening understanding of the relationships among climate change, conflict, and internal displacement in the Sahel, particularly focusing on the implications for security and stability in Nigeria. This dialogue brought together key stakeholders from various sectors to examine the realities on the ground, identify policy and institutional gaps, promote innovative solutions, and strengthen collaborative frameworks that foster long-term peace and resilience in the Sahel and throughout Nigeria. It also provided a platform for affected communities to share their experiences and leadership in adaptation and peacebuilding, ensuring that the proposed solutions are both evidence-based and locally owned.

This high-level dialogue, supported by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, comes at a crucial time as the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR) celebrates its 25th anniversary of dedicated service in promoting peace, conflict prevention, and sustainable development across Nigeria and Africa. Over the past 25 years, IPCR has played a pivotal role in research, advocacy, and policy engagement related to peace and conflict transformation. The Institute seized this opportunity to draw national and regional attention to one of the most pressing and complex peace and security challenges of our time: the intersection of climate change, conflict, and displacement in the Sahel.

Participants emphasized the critical need to strengthen multi-sectoral and cross-border collaboration among governments, civil society, and international actors to enable integrated climate adaptation, conflict prevention, and humanitarian responses in the Sahel region.